Tech & Capital Weekly Market Snapshot

The Founder’s Market, LP Liquidity & The Rise of AGI “Doers”

To Our Limited Partners,

Past week’s dynamics underscore a market at an inflection point, characterized by a pronounced shift in power, evolving liquidity strategies, and a technological leap that redefines the very nature of work. Here’s what matters for your portfolio.

1. Venture: The Pendulum Swings to Founders—A Sustainable Shift or 2021 Redux?

For the first time in three years, our dealmaking indicator has flipped in favor of early-stage founders. Key drivers:

• AI-Driven Velocity: Unprecedented growth is justifying premium valuations. Companies like Higgsfield AI are reportedly reaching $100M ARR in just 5 months, compressing a decade of scale into months.

• Capital Concentration: Large multi-stage funds, with less price sensitivity, are aggressively bidding to secure ownership in these high-velocity companies, often letting founders set terms.

• The Core Debate: Is this a warranted reward for fundamental progress (as argued by GC’s Quentin Clark) or the early signs of overexuberance threatening durable margins (as cautioned by Renegade’s Roseanne Wincek)? For LPs, this signals a market where access to the most sought-after deals will increasingly hinge on a fund’s strategic value-add beyond capital, as pure check-writers face crowding out.